NIGERIA: LOOKING BEYOND COVID-19? (1), By Alade Fawole

Nigeria will never remain the same again after the COVID-19 pandemic! Actually, no country will remain the way it was before the global outbreak of the coronavirus. There is no doubt that by the time it is eventually conquered, the devastating pandemic would have wrought enormous and unquantifiable damage. And all countries, big and small, rich and poor, powerful and powerless, would have had their share of the political, economic, health, infrastructural, and social devastation. And because of this, countries will have to compulsorily undergo some painful periods that will compel them to consider necessary adjustments in several spheres of national life. The world will no longer be the same, and nation-states will be forced to objectively assess their priorities and take the steps that wisdom will dictate, or face as yet unforeseen dire consequences should they fail to act wisely and appropriately.

In my view, the coronavirus pandemic is a real war, an equivalent of a world war, one much worse than both the First and Second World Wars, for it has no known battlefields for pitched battles, no opposing national armies, no identifiable enemies or allies or neutrals, no rules of engagement to follow, and no capable weapons to fight this common enemy of all mankind. It is an all-out war with no prisoners taken, a global devastation that spares no one that comes in contact with it! And as a war, it will surely have its destructive consequences! Like both World Wars of the last Century, this 21^st Century global war will also leave unimaginable consequences in its wake, not only on individual countries alone but generally and collectively on the psyche of humanity, and on the global political, economic, social and geopolitical landscape. In short, we are likely witnessing the emergence of a totally new world order, a radical reconfiguration of the global politico-economic and military architecture.

Thus far, the pandemic is wreaking untold and incalculable havoc on the economies of nations, private corporations and individual businesses, and on the livelihoods of billions of people across the globe. And this may yet be just a tip of the iceberg! Remember, no one could have accurately imagined at the start of WWI in 1914 what manner of disaster the war would wreak on the protagonists, the allies, the enemies and even the neutrals, such that by the time the guns finally fell silent four years later, the political map of the world had been redrawn by the power of artillery, and the global distribution of power had been severely altered.

By its end, several hitherto great empires, kingdoms, and states, had vanished in the cloud of cannon fire and smoke; the Russian, Ottoman, and Austro-Hungarian empires had passed into history; and Germany, hitherto a major colonial and global power, was casually stripped of its power and possessions by its victorious rivals at Versailles! In the same way, the Second World War also left significant changes on the world political map, most of which are still with us till date. In its aftermath, nation-states had to reach inwards and examine their peculiar situations, restructure where required, rebuild damaged infrastructure, re-strategize, and make the relevant and required policy changes for post-war survival. In the process, some states became more democratic, some others lapsed into authoritarianism.

It seems that one of the unfortunate outcomes of the on-going war against the coronavirus is the gradual regression of some countries into authoritarianism —– Rodrigo Duterte’s Philippines, Viktor Orban’s Hungary are veritable exemplars. Under the guise of fighting the pandemic, democratically elected leaders are surreptitiously impounding extra-constitutional powers. Perceptive Nigerians are already warning to be vigilant, defend federalism and prevent descent into autocracy and erosion of our fundamental rights and basic freedoms under the guise of fighting the pandemic.

Nigeria will surely come out of this war still intact, only that no one can at this moment predict with exactitude in what shape it would be. By the time the global war against this coronavirus would have ended, it would have left behind a trail of death and misery, and devastation on the health of the Nigerian state as well. Its fragile, oil-dependent economy is already being hit hard, as the falling global price of oil is predicted to reach as low as $10 a barrel! This is certainly an ominous prediction for Nigeria.

Going forward, this predictable precipitous decline in the nation’s economic fortunes should now compel leaders and policymakers to begin to design policies and actions required to undertake necessary and drastic changes, political and economic reforms and a structural redesign of the federation. Desperate situations normally require desperate solutions. The post-COVID-19 situation will not necessarily admit of the usual orthodox but radical responses from the Nigerian state. I hope that President Muhammadu Buhari’s characteristic taciturnity and rigid posture, an inconvenient body language under the circumstances, will not constitute unwanted hindrance to the nation undertaking the necessary post-pandemic reforms. Should that happen, the repercussions of inaction or wrong actions will be too devastating to imagine. God forbid, it may even signal the beginning of the end of the Nigerian state as we know it. One can only pray that wise counsels and cool heads will ultimately prevail so that the beginning of Nigeria’s disintegration is avoided.

Arising from the scenario painted above, there are several critical measures to be taken immediately to ensure Nigeria’s future, but I will limit myself to just two: first, the health sector and the national economy combined, and second, the imperative of political restructuring, a good proposition to which the present Buhari administration has so far turned a deaf ear.

The health sector must be a major priority, for the coronavirus pandemic has further exposed the soft underbelly and the critical inadequacies of the nation’s healthcare sector. It calls for serious attention and concerted efforts to repair, rebuild and restructure the nation’s health system, decentralize where necessary; construct and equip more standard hospitals and ancillary healthcare delivery facilities, provide ambulances, etc. The government should leverage the current outpouring of philanthropy and benevolence of Nigerians to build, equip and staff new primary healthcare facilities in the rural areas, and upgrade the secondary and tertiary hospitals to attend to our needs without anyone, except the super-rich, going overseas for treatment. Government must address the causative factors of the exodus of Nigerian medical doctors from the countries and arrest this brain-drain as a matter of national emergency.

Concerning the economy, it’s high time Nigeria seriously looked beyond oil, put the best heads together and re-strategize. Enough of sheer rhetorical promises that have amounted to nothing! This nation needs to look inwards, create the enabling environment for employment and wealth creation for the large army of youths, adopt and adapt modern technologies for income generation and wealth creation, plug leakages and check excesses in government, check bribery and demonstrate zero tolerance for corruption. Nigeria predictably faces an uncertain future unless we put on our thinking caps.

To be continued